The Briefing
A data-driven read on the state of recession risk.
Daily briefings every morning, indicator spotlights on Mondays and Thursdays, and a weekly Crisis Lens every Wednesday comparing today's readings to historical downturns. Written by Alex, Doom Watcher analyst.
- SpotlightMay 21, 202633· Caution+7
Credit Card Delinquency Holds Above Safe Zone, Trend Softening
The Credit Card Delinquency Rate measures the share of balances 30-plus days past due. At 2.92%, it sits above the safe threshold but well below critical, contributing a modest stress signal to the composite while its trend has begun to improve.
- BriefingMay 21, 202633· Caution+7
Doom Score jumps seven points as oil and housing stress mount
The Doom Score surged to 33 from 26, crossing from All Clear into Caution, driven by Energy Price Shock, Consumer Confidence, and housing-side indicators. Geopolitical pressure on the Strait of Hormuz is the clearest macro catalyst. Prediction markets trimmed recession odds modestly; Google Trends interest in recession is falling.
- BriefingMay 20, 202626· All Clear
doom score holds at 26 as energy and housing stress persist
The Doom Score is unchanged at 26 for a second consecutive session, sitting below both its 7-day and 30-day averages. No Core 6 indicator is driving the composite today; the load falls on consumer, housing, and energy signals. Prediction markets nudged higher on recession odds.
- BriefingMay 19, 202626· All Clear
doom score holds at 26 as consumer and energy stress persist
The Doom Score printed flat at 26 for a second consecutive day, remaining in All Clear territory but sitting above its 30-day average trend line. Consumer Confidence, Home Construction, and Energy Price Shock continue to carry the most weighted stress. Prediction markets nudged higher on Iran-related uncertainty.
- SpotlightMay 18, 202626· All Clear
Yield Curve Channel Returns to Positive Territory, Recession Signal Fades
Both Treasury spread measures — the 10Y-2Y and 10Y-3M — are now positive and trending away from inversion. The monetary channel is contributing almost nothing to the Doom Score, though the 10Y-3M has not yet cleared its safe threshold.
- BriefingMay 18, 202626· All Clear
score holds at 26 as geopolitical oil shock builds quietly
The Doom Score held flat at 26 for a second consecutive session, remaining in All Clear territory, but the composition is less benign than the headline suggests. Energy and consumer stress indicators are worsening, Middle East supply disruptions are pushing oil higher, and prediction market recession odds ticked up on Polymarket.
- BriefingMay 17, 202626· All Clear
score holds at 26 as energy and housing stress persist quietly
The Doom Score printed flat at 26 for a second consecutive day, remaining in All Clear territory. Beneath the stillness, Consumer Confidence, Energy Price Shock, and housing-side indicators continue to carry the bulk of weighted stress. Prediction markets nudged recession odds higher; Hormuz supply risks are the live macro threat.
- BriefingMay 16, 202626· All Clear-1
score slips to 26 as housing and energy weigh on an otherwise calm tape
The Doom Score fell one point to 26, remaining firmly in All Clear territory, as Consumer Confidence, Energy Price Shock, and housing-supply stress continue to carry the load. Core 6 indicators are largely quiet. Prediction markets nudged recession odds slightly higher; bond yields and Iran-linked oil anxiety are the week's dominant macro themes.
- BriefingMay 15, 202627· All Clear
score holds at 27 as oil and housing drag against improving labor
The Doom Score printed flat at 27 for a second consecutive day, sitting comfortably in All Clear territory. Consumer Confidence and Energy Price Shock remain the heaviest contributors. Labor indicators continue to improve. Middle East tensions pushed oil up 3%, adding pressure to an already-elevated OIL activation.
- SpotlightMay 14, 202627· All Clear-3
Real Disposable Income Slides Toward Its Critical Floor
Real Disposable Personal Income growth has decelerated sharply to near-zero, sitting just above the threshold the NBER treats as a recession marker. The trend is worsening, and the indicator is now contributing meaningfully to the composite stress signal.
- BriefingMay 14, 202627· All Clear-3
Doom Score drops to 27 as labor stress fades, oil and housing linger
The composite score fell three points to 27, crossing from Caution into All Clear, as labor-side indicators continued to improve and credit stress eased. Energy Price Shock and Home Construction remain the heaviest drags. Kalshi trimmed recession odds five points on the week; Polymarket held steady.
- BriefingMay 13, 202630· Caution+2
doom score ticks to 30 as oil shock and Iran conflict dominate
The Doom Score rose two points to 30, crossing from All Clear into Caution, as Energy Price Shock and Consumer Confidence remain the heaviest contributors. The Iran conflict is driving the oil supply narrative. Prediction markets trimmed 2026 recession odds meaningfully over the past week.
- BriefingMay 12, 202628· All Clear
score holds at 28 as Iran conflict keeps energy stress elevated
The Doom Score printed flat at 28 for a second consecutive day, remaining in All Clear territory, but the calm surface masks a worsening energy and consumer backdrop. Hormuz tensions sustain Oil at near-full activation while Consumer Confidence and Real Income continue to deteriorate. Prediction markets cut recession odds sharply.
- SpotlightMay 11, 202628· All Clear
Quits Rate Stalls in the Warning Zone Between Confidence and Caution
The JOLTS Quits Rate measures how freely workers leave jobs voluntarily. Sitting at 2.0 — below the safe threshold but above critical — it signals a labor market that has cooled meaningfully without yet breaking, contributing half its maximum stress weight to the composite.
- BriefingMay 11, 202628· All Clear
score holds at 28 as oil and sentiment drag against improving labor
The Doom Score held flat at 28 for a second consecutive session, remaining well inside All Clear territory. Energy Price Shock and Consumer Confidence are the dominant stress contributors, while labor and credit indicators continue to ease. Prediction markets trimmed recession odds materially over the past week.
- BriefingMay 10, 202628· All Clear
score holds at 28 as oil stress and consumer strain dominate a calm tape
The Doom Score held flat at 28 for a second consecutive session, remaining comfortably in All Clear territory. Prediction markets trimmed recession odds sharply. Energy and consumer confidence remain the dominant stress vectors, while labor and credit indicators continue to improve.
- BriefingMay 9, 202628· All Clear-4
Doom Score drops four points as oil stress dominates a calmer tape
The composite score fell from 32 to 28, crossing back into All Clear territory, as financial conditions and credit stress indicators remained dormant. Energy Price Shock and Consumer Confidence are the live fault lines, with US-Iran tensions keeping oil risk elevated even as the headline number improves.
- BriefingMay 8, 202632· Caution+3
Doom Score Jumps to 32 as Iran Conflict Rattles Energy and Sentiment
The Doom Score rose three points to 32, crossing from All Clear into Caution, as geopolitical escalation in the Middle East pressured oil markets and weighed on already-stressed consumer confidence. The Core 6 sub-score sits at 23.54. Housing supply and energy remain the heaviest contributors.
- SpotlightMay 7, 202629· All Clear-1
GDPNow Rebounds Sharply After a Turbulent April
The Atlanta Fed's real-time GDP tracker swung from near-stall speed in late April to a healthy expansion signal in early May, illustrating both the model's sensitivity to trade data and why a single reading demands context before drawing conclusions.
- BriefingMay 7, 202629· All Clear-1
score slips to 29 as oil eases and recession odds fall
The Doom Score fell one point to 29, crossing back into All Clear from Caution, as Energy Price Shock continued to improve and prediction markets trimmed 2026 recession odds by 2.5 points on both platforms. Consumer Confidence and housing supply remain the dominant stress contributors.
- BriefingMay 6, 202630· Caution+1
score edges up one point as consumer stress and housing drag persist
The Doom Score ticked up one point to 30, crossing from All Clear into Caution, as Consumer Confidence and housing supply remain the dominant stress contributors. Core 6 prints at 21.48. Prediction markets trimmed recession odds modestly. Oil's slide on Iran deal prospects is a meaningful tailwind.
- BriefingMay 5, 202629· All Clear-1
score drops to 29 as oil and housing ease, but confidence stays broken
The Doom Score fell one point to 29, crossing back into All Clear from Caution, as Energy Price Shock and Months Supply of Houses improved. Consumer Confidence remains the heaviest drag at full activation. Middle East tensions keep oil elevated and prediction markets diverge on 2026 recession odds.
- SpotlightMay 4, 202630· Caution
Production Channel Holds, But the Margin Is Thin
Manufacturing PMI sits exactly at its safe threshold, Industrial Production has slipped below its safe zone, and GDPNow swung wildly before recovering. The production channel is technically intact but carrying less cushion than the headline numbers suggest.
- BriefingMay 4, 202630· Caution
Score holds at 30 as Hormuz tensions lift oil risk
The Doom Score held flat at 30 for a second consecutive session, with Consumer Confidence and Energy Price Shock remaining the dominant stress contributors. A 5% oil spike tied to military escalation in the Strait of Hormuz kept the Energy Price Shock activation elevated even as the trend improved. Prediction markets trimmed recession odds modestly.
- BriefingMay 3, 202630· Caution
score holds at 30 as sentiment and housing drag against easing credit
The Doom Score is unchanged at 30 for a second consecutive session, with Consumer Confidence and housing supply still the heaviest contributors. Prediction markets trimmed recession odds modestly. Geopolitical risk around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz is the dominant macro overhang, though it has not yet moved the composite.
- BriefingMay 2, 202630· Caution-3
Doom Score drops to 30 as prediction markets pare recession odds
The composite score fell three points to 30, its lowest reading relative to the 30-day average in weeks, as prediction markets trimmed 2026 recession probabilities and several indicators continued improving. Consumer Confidence and housing supply remain the dominant stress contributors. The Caution band holds.
- BriefingMay 1, 202633· Caution+1
doom score edges to 33 as oil and housing drag persists
The Doom Score ticked up one point to 33, remaining in the Caution band, as Consumer Confidence and Energy Price Shock held the top two weighted contributions. Prediction markets trimmed 2026 recession odds materially week-over-week. The composite sits below its 30-day average, but diffusion is above 50.
- SpotlightApril 30, 202632· Caution
Unemployment Holds Steady, But the Calm Has Conditions
The Unemployment Rate sits at 4.3%, comfortably below the caution threshold of 4.5%. It is stable and contributing no stress to the composite — but its lagging nature means the signal deserves watching, not trusting blindly.
- BriefingApril 30, 202632· Caution
score holds at 32 as stagflation fears collide with resilient credit
The Doom Score printed flat at 32 for a second consecutive session, with Consumer Confidence and housing supply anchoring the top of the driver stack while the Core 6 remains subdued at 21.48. An Iran-driven oil shock is the dominant macro narrative, but financial conditions and credit spreads have not yet transmitted the stress.
- BriefingApril 29, 202632· Caution
score holds at 32 as oil shock tests an otherwise stable picture
The Doom Score printed flat at 32 for a second consecutive day, with Consumer Confidence and housing supply anchoring the top drivers while an oil price surge tied to Hormuz disruption and the UAE's OPEC exit injected fresh energy-side risk. Prediction markets trimmed recession odds modestly on the week.
- BriefingApril 28, 202632· Caution+2
doom score ticks to 32 as consumer stress and housing supply dominate
The Doom Score rose two points to 32, remaining in the Caution band, as Consumer Confidence and Months Supply of Houses led weighted contributions. Prediction markets trimmed recession odds modestly. Oil's surge to $110 has not yet fully registered in the model's Energy Price Shock reading.
- SpotlightApril 27, 202630· Caution
Industrial Production Slips Below Safe Territory, Holds Above Danger
The Federal Reserve's Industrial Production Index has just crossed below its safe threshold on a year-over-year basis, landing in the caution band. Output is still growing, but the margin is thin and the recent step-down is abrupt.
- BriefingApril 27, 202630· Caution
doom score holds at 30 as oil and sentiment drag persists
The Doom Score is unchanged at 30 for a second consecutive session, with the Caution band intact. Energy Price Shock, Consumer Confidence, and housing supply remain the dominant stress contributors. Iran-related oil pressure is the clearest macro catalyst in today's session.
- BriefingApril 26, 202630· Caution
doom score holds at 30 as oil and confidence weigh
The Doom Score is unchanged at 30 for a second consecutive session, sitting below both the 7-day average of 32.3 and the 30-day average of 34.1. Energy Price Shock and Consumer Confidence remain the heaviest contributors. Prediction markets trimmed 2026 recession odds modestly. The score is stable, not improving.
- BriefingApril 25, 202630· Caution+1
doom score ticks to 30 as oil and sentiment weigh against easing markets
The Doom Score edged up one point to 30, crossing from All Clear into Caution, as Energy Price Shock and Consumer Confidence remain fully activated and housing supply stays elevated. Prediction markets trimmed recession odds meaningfully week-over-week. The broader picture is one of contained but persistent stress.
- BriefingApril 24, 202629· All Clear
doom score holds at 29 as geopolitical oil risk dominates a quiet tape
The Doom Score printed 29 for a second consecutive day, unchanged in level and alert band. Geopolitical stress from stalled US-Iran talks is keeping Energy Price Shock fully activated, while Consumer Confidence and housing supply remain the other dominant drags. Prediction markets trimmed recession odds modestly.
- SpotlightApril 23, 202629· All Clear-3
Real Retail Sales Rebounds From a Worrying Winter Trough
Real Retail Sales measures actual consumer spending volume after stripping out inflation. After dipping into critical territory this winter, the 3-month annualized rate has recovered sharply to 4.23%, signaling that households are spending again — not just paying more.
- BriefingApril 23, 202629· All Clear-3
Doom Score drops to 29 as markets cheer ceasefire but oil stays hot
The composite score fell three points to 29, crossing back into All Clear from Caution, as equity markets rallied on an Iran ceasefire extension and earnings optimism. Oil remains fully activated above $100, Consumer Confidence is deeply stressed, and prediction markets trimmed recession odds meaningfully.
- BriefingApril 22, 202632· Caution-2
doom score slips to 32 as energy and sentiment dominate the risk picture
The Doom Score fell two points to 32, its lowest reading in recent weeks, as prediction markets trimmed 2026 recession odds and several indicators edged toward improvement. Energy Price Shock and Consumer Confidence remain the dominant stress contributors, both fully activated, while Iran-related oil volatility keeps the geopolitical risk premium elevated.