doom score ticks to 32 as consumer stress and housing supply dominate
By Alex · Doom Watcher analyst
The Doom Score rose two points to 32, remaining in the Caution band, as Consumer Confidence and Months Supply of Houses led weighted contributions. Prediction markets trimmed recession odds modestly. Oil's surge to $110 has not yet fully registered in the model's Energy Price Shock reading.
By the Numbers
The Doom Score sits at 32, up two points from yesterday's 30, and above the 7-day average of 30.6 but below the 30-day average of 33.7. The alert level remains Caution. Core 6 sub-score prints at 20.36 — notably subdued relative to the composite, indicating that the headline stress is concentrated outside the most-weighted indicators. Diffusion Index at 41.18 means fewer than half of tracked indicators are deteriorating on a 90-day basis. Top drivers by weighted contribution are Consumer Confidence, Months Supply of Houses, Yield Curve (10Y-3M), Home Construction, and Oil. Consumer Confidence's activation at 112.5% — the only indicator exceeding 100% — is the single largest source of score pressure today.
What Changed Today
Consumer Confidence held at 53.3 with a worsening trend, sustaining its 112.5% activation and remaining the top contributor. Months Supply of Houses at 9.7 months sits at exactly 100% activation despite an improving trend, reflecting how far inventory has drifted from historical norms. The Yield Curve (10Y-3M) improved to 0.62, reducing its activation to 54.5%. JOLTS Quits Rate at 1.9 continues to worsen, signaling softening worker confidence. Real Income and Personal Savings Rate both trend worsening. On the positive side, Trade Policy Uncertainty, Consumer Credit Stress, and Hiring Slowdown all show improving trends. No indicator flipped alert bands today. The net two-point rise reflects accumulated deterioration in sentiment and housing supply rather than any single sharp move.
News Drivers
Three negative macro stories shaped the backdrop. Crude oil surged to $110 per barrel — a 3% single-session move tied to stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations and Strait of Hormuz infrastructure risk. The model's Energy Price Shock indicator sits at 57.2% activation with an improving trend, suggesting the current reading predates this spike; a sustained $110 handle would likely push that activation higher in coming sessions. The Bank of Japan's hawkish signal on a potential June rate hike adds pressure to global carry trades and could tighten financial conditions internationally, though the model's Financial Conditions indicator currently prints at 0.0% activation. Treasury yields rising to 4.356% on geopolitical risk premium is consistent with the Yield Curve's partial activation. Prediction markets eased: Polymarket's 2026 recession contract fell to 25.5% from 26.5% a week ago; Kalshi dropped to 21% from 24%. Google Trends 'recession' interest fell 10% week-over-week to 66, reinforcing the modest de-escalation in public anxiety.
Historical Context
At 32, the score sits 1.4 points above the 7-day average of 30.6 and 1.7 points below the 30-day average of 33.7, suggesting the recent trend has been mild improvement interrupted by today's small uptick. The 90-day maximum of 38 — the ceiling of recent stress — remains well above current levels, indicating no fresh extremes. Scores in the low-30s are consistent with late-cycle caution rather than contraction signal; the 2015-2016 industrial soft patch and the mid-2019 pre-emptive Fed easing window both produced extended periods in this range. The current configuration — sentiment deteriorating sharply while credit and labor indicators remain largely quiet — resembles early-stage consumer-led softening more than a broad-based cyclical downturn.
What to Watch
The most immediate data risk is Weekly Layoff Filings: currently at 210,750 with 0.0% activation, a sustained move above roughly 240,000 would begin registering score pressure. Consumer Confidence at 112.5% activation is already the top driver; any further deterioration in the Conference Board or Michigan series would widen that lead. The Energy Price Shock indicator bears close monitoring — if crude holds near $110, the improving trend could reverse and activation push toward 70%-plus. The JOLTS Quits Rate at 66.7% activation and worsening trend is the labor-adjacent indicator closest to escalating. On the positive side, a resolution in U.S.-Iran talks that pulls oil back below $90 would relieve both the Oil and inflation-adjacent indicators simultaneously. The score would likely re-test the 30-day average of 33.7 on any combination of claims deterioration and sustained energy prices.