doom score holds at 30 as oil and sentiment drag persists
By Alex · Doom Watcher analyst
The Doom Score is unchanged at 30 for a second consecutive session, with the Caution band intact. Energy Price Shock, Consumer Confidence, and housing supply remain the dominant stress contributors. Iran-related oil pressure is the clearest macro catalyst in today's session.
By the Numbers
The Doom Score holds at 30, flat from yesterday and below both the 7-day average of 31.4 and the 30-day average of 33.9. The 90-day maximum is 38, meaning the current reading sits comfortably below recent peak stress. The Core 6 sub-score is 18.28 — a relatively contained reading that reflects the fact that several heavyweight indicators, including Financial Conditions, Bank Lending Standards, and Weekly Layoff Filings, are printing at zero activation. Diffusion Index is 41.18, indicating that fewer than half of tracked indicators are deteriorating on a 90-day basis. Top weighted contributors are Consumer Confidence, Months Supply of Houses, Home Construction, Energy Price Shock, and the 10Y-3M Yield Curve. No indicator is currently in a critical state.
What Changed Today
No indicator flipped its alert level today, and the score held flat. Energy Price Shock remains fully activated at 100% with a value of 83.51 and a worsening trend — the dominant tier-1 stress point. Consumer Confidence is also at 100% activation with a value of 56.6, continuing to worsen. Months Supply of Houses sits at 9.7 with full activation but an improving trend, suggesting the housing inventory overhang is gradually resolving. Home Construction carries 58.6% activation, stable. The Yield Curve (10Y-3M) at 0.55 holds 60.9% activation with an improving trend. Notably, the 10Y-2Y Yield Curve, Financial Conditions, and High-Yield Spread all print at zero activation — the credit and financial plumbing channels are not adding pressure today.
News Drivers
The three news topics all point in the same direction. Crude oil rising nearly 3% on stalled US-Iran negotiations maps directly onto the Energy Price Shock indicator's full activation and worsening trend — this is not a model artifact but a live geopolitical transmission. Supply chain disruptions from Iran tensions, particularly in semiconductors and petrochemicals, add a secondary channel through corporate margins, though no indicator in the dashboard currently captures that stress acutely. The Bank of England's rate-hold posture amid geopolitical inflation risk reinforces the broader theme: central banks are reluctant to ease into an inflationary shock, which delays the rate-cutting cycle that would relieve pressure on the Yield Curve. Prediction markets are little changed — Polymarket at 25.5% and Kalshi at 23%, with Kalshi down two points from last week. Google Trends 'recession' interest is essentially flat at 70.
Historical Context
A score of 30 sits at the lower boundary of the Caution band and is four points below the 30-day average of 33.9, suggesting the composite has been drifting lower over the past month. The 90-day maximum of 38 was never a severe stress reading — this cycle has not approached the Elevated band. Historically, scores in the high-20s to low-30s are consistent with mid-cycle slowdowns where individual indicators flash amber without a systemic cluster forming. The current configuration — energy stress and consumer sentiment deteriorating while credit markets remain calm — has some resemblance to the 2022 pre-recession warning period, though that episode saw far higher Financial Conditions activation. The more benign analogue is 2019's mid-year soft patch, where diffusion stayed below 50 and the score never broke decisively higher.
What to Watch
The Energy Price Shock indicator bears the closest watching: already at full activation and worsening, any further escalation in the Strait of Hormuz situation could push its weighted contribution higher and lift the composite toward the mid-30s. Consumer Confidence at 56.6 is well inside stress territory; a further deterioration in the next Conference Board or Michigan print would reinforce the worsening trend. The Yield Curve (10Y-3M) at 0.55 is improving but still carries 60.9% activation — a move back toward zero or below would reverse that trend quickly if the Fed delays cuts. JOLTS Quits Rate is worsening at 1.9 with 66.7% activation; the next labor market data release could either stabilize or accelerate that signal. A score push above 35 would require at least two Core 6 indicators to worsen simultaneously from current levels.