doom score holds at 29 as geopolitical oil risk dominates a quiet tape
By Alex · Doom Watcher analyst
The Doom Score printed 29 for a second consecutive day, unchanged in level and alert band. Geopolitical stress from stalled US-Iran talks is keeping Energy Price Shock fully activated, while Consumer Confidence and housing supply remain the other dominant drags. Prediction markets trimmed recession odds modestly.
By the Numbers
The Doom Score holds at 29, flat from yesterday and sitting in the All Clear band. The Core 6 sub-score is 18.28, notably low relative to the composite, which signals that the headline stress is concentrated outside the most recession-predictive indicators. Diffusion Index at 35.29 means roughly a third of tracked indicators are deteriorating on a 90-day basis — a minority, but not trivial. Top weighted contributors are Consumer Confidence, Months Supply of Houses, Home Construction, Energy Price Shock, and the 10Y-3M Yield Curve. Both Energy Price Shock and Consumer Confidence are at 100% activation, meaning they are fully contributing their weighted stress. The score is running five points below the 7-day average of 34.1 and five below the 30-day average of 34.4.
What Changed Today
No indicator flipped alert bands today, and the score held flat at 29. The most notable static readings are Energy Price Shock at 83.51 with full activation and Consumer Confidence at 56.6, also fully activated and still trending worse. Months Supply of Houses at 9.7 remains fully activated but is now trending improving — a tentative signal in an otherwise stressed housing picture. The Yield Curve (10Y-3M) sits at 0.55 with 60.9% activation, trending improving. JOLTS Quits Rate at 1.9 and Real Income are both flagged as worsening in trend, adding quiet deterioration pressure. Weekly Layoff Filings at 209,750 holds at 0% activation with an improving trend — the labor market is not yet cracking on this measure.
News Drivers
The three news topics all point in the same direction. Stalled US-Iran talks are sustaining the geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil, which maps directly to Energy Price Shock's full activation at 83.51. The El Niño and Iran conflict combination raises food price inflation risk, compounding the consumer purchasing-power pressure already visible in Consumer Confidence at 56.6. Safe-haven dollar strength, while not a direct dashboard indicator, creates headwinds for multinational earnings and emerging-market stability that could eventually feed into credit and financial conditions channels. Prediction markets eased: Polymarket's 2026 recession contract moved from 29.5% to 26%, and Kalshi from 25% to 23%. Google Trends shows 'recession' interest at 78, up 4% from 75 a week ago — a modest but directionally consistent uptick with the geopolitical backdrop.
Historical Context
At 29, the score sits five points below both the 7-day average of 34.1 and the 30-day average of 34.4, and ten points below the 90-day maximum of 38. The current reading is technically All Clear, but the gap between the composite score and the Core 6 sub-score of 18.28 is worth noting: it reflects stress concentrated in consumer sentiment and commodity channels rather than in the credit, labor, and curve indicators that have historically led recessions. This pattern — elevated soft-data and commodity stress alongside benign hard financial indicators — resembles the mid-2019 and late-2022 episodes, both of which resolved without recession but sustained elevated uncertainty for several months.
What to Watch
Consumer Confidence at 56.6 is the indicator most worth monitoring for further deterioration; a move toward the low 50s would deepen its weighted contribution. The Yield Curve (10Y-3M) at 0.55 and 60.9% activation is trending improving — a continued steepening would reduce its drag on the Core 6. JOLTS Quits Rate at 1.9 is worsening in trend; the next JOLTS release will clarify whether labor market attachment is genuinely softening. On the geopolitical side, any resolution or escalation in US-Iran talks would move Energy Price Shock, currently the single largest contributor by activation weight. A Polymarket recession probability climbing back above 29.5% would signal that markets are reversing this week's modest optimism.