doom score ticks to 30 as oil and sentiment weigh against easing markets
By Alex · Doom Watcher analyst
The Doom Score edged up one point to 30, crossing from All Clear into Caution, as Energy Price Shock and Consumer Confidence remain fully activated and housing supply stays elevated. Prediction markets trimmed recession odds meaningfully week-over-week. The broader picture is one of contained but persistent stress.
By the Numbers
The Doom Score sits at 30, up one point from yesterday's 29, and the alert level has crossed from All Clear into Caution. The Core 6 sub-score prints at 18.28, a relatively subdued reading that reflects the absence of acute stress in Financial Conditions, Yield Curve (YC), and Weekly Layoff Filings — all at 0% activation. The Diffusion Index is 41.18, meaning fewer than half of tracked indicators are deteriorating on a 90-day basis. Top weighted contributors are Consumer Confidence, Months Supply of Houses, Home Construction, Energy Price Shock, and the 10Y-3M Yield Curve. Consumer Confidence at 56.6 and Energy Price Shock at 83.51 both register 100% activation, anchoring the score's floor and preventing a return to All Clear territory.
What Changed Today
The one-point rise reflects no dramatic single-indicator shift. Consumer Confidence holds at 100% activation with a worsening trend, and Energy Price Shock remains fully activated. The 10Y-3M Yield Curve improved to 0.55 with activation at 60.9%, continuing a gradual steepening. Temp Worker Cuts and Real Retail Sales both trend improving. JOLTS Quits Rate, Real Income, and Personal Savings Rate are all flagged as worsening — a cluster suggesting household-side deterioration is quietly broadening. Months Supply of Houses at 9.7 months remains fully activated despite an improving trend, keeping housing stress embedded in the score. No indicator flipped between activated and dormant today.
News Drivers
The news backdrop is genuinely contradictory. US-Iran nuclear talks are progressing, and oil prices have softened on de-escalation signals — consistent with Energy Price Shock's elevated but not accelerating reading. Simultaneously, US sanctions on Iranian oil and Chinese refineries are disrupting supply chains and lifting exploration costs, which cuts against any clean relief narrative. Fed independence concerns persist: Trump's pressure campaign on Chair Powell continues despite no formal action, a slow-burn risk to inflation expectations that does not yet register in Financial Conditions at 0% activation. Prediction markets moved constructively — Polymarket's 2026 recession contract fell from 29.5% to 25.5% week-over-week; Kalshi dropped from 25% to 23%. Google Trends 'recession' interest slipped 4% to 49, consistent with modest public disengagement from the worst-case narrative.
Historical Context
Today's 30 sits below the 7-day average of 33.1 and the 30-day average of 34.3, suggesting the score has been drifting lower after a more stressed period. The 90-day maximum of 38 was reached recently and represents the ceiling of this cycle's stress so far — a relatively contained range by historical standards. Scores in the 28–34 band have historically corresponded to late-cycle soft patches where deterioration is real but not self-reinforcing. The 2015–2016 oil shock and the mid-2019 slowdown both produced sustained readings in this zone without tipping into recession. The current configuration — housing oversupply, weak consumer confidence, and an energy shock alongside normalising credit — has partial echoes of early 2016, when commodity stress and sentiment weakness coexisted with resilient labor markets.
What to Watch
The most consequential near-term release is the next Consumer Confidence print. At 56.6 with a worsening trend, a further decline toward the low 50s would deepen its weighted drag and could push the score back toward the mid-30s. Months Supply of Houses at 9.7 is well above the threshold for full activation; a meaningful drop would require several months of data. On the labor side, Unemployment Pace sits at 40% activation with a stable trend — any deterioration there would pull in a Tier 1 indicator currently contributing little. The 10Y-3M Yield Curve at 0.55 is improving but still 60.9% activated; a move above roughly 0.80 would begin to reduce its contribution materially. Prediction markets below 25% on Kalshi would mark a new low for this cycle's recession pricing.