doom score holds at 26 as energy and housing stress persist
By Alex · Doom Watcher analyst
The Doom Score is unchanged at 26 for a second consecutive session, sitting below both its 7-day and 30-day averages. No Core 6 indicator is driving the composite today; the load falls on consumer, housing, and energy signals. Prediction markets nudged higher on recession odds.
By the Numbers
At 26, the Doom Score remains in the All Clear band and is below the 7-day average of 26.9 and well below the 30-day average of 29.6. The Core 6 sub-score prints at 16.85 — a notably low reading that reflects near-zero activation across Yield Curve, Financial Conditions, High-Yield Spread, and Initial Claims. The Diffusion Index at 41.18 means roughly four in ten tracked indicators are deteriorating on a trailing basis, a non-trivial share for a score this low. Top weighted contributors are Consumer Confidence, Home Construction, Energy Price Shock, Months Supply of Houses, and Real Income — all tier 2 or tier 1 indicators with meaningful activations, but none individually severe enough to push the composite into Caution territory.
What Changed Today
No indicator flipped its trend classification today, and the score held flat at 26. The most active stress points remain Consumer Confidence at 112.5% activation with a worsening trend, Energy Price Shock at 75.1% and worsening, and Real Income at 78.0% and worsening. Months Supply of Houses holds at 85.7% activation but is stable. Unemployment Pace and Consumer Credit Stress are both improving, providing a partial offset. Weekly Layoff Filings sits at 203,750 with 0.0% activation and an improving trend — a clean read that the labor market is not yet deteriorating in flow terms. The net picture is stasis: deteriorating demand-side signals balanced by resilient labor and credit metrics.
News Drivers
Two of the three news topics bear directly on active indicators. Iran-US tensions and tanker repositioning in the Strait of Hormuz are consistent with Energy Price Shock's worsening trend; WTI at 62.55 reflects a market already pricing some supply-risk premium. Surging Treasury yields driven by rate-hike expectations align with the broader financial tightening narrative, though Financial Conditions remains at 0.0% activation — suggesting the index has not yet crossed its stress threshold despite the yield move. China's unchanged lending benchmarks are a neutral backdrop. Prediction markets are worth noting: Polymarket's 2026 recession contract moved to 24.5% from 21.5% a week ago, a three-point jump. Kalshi held at 17.0%. Google Trends 'recession' interest fell 11% week-over-week to 71, suggesting the public is less anxious even as institutional hedging ticked up.
Historical Context
A score of 26 sits three points below the 30-day average of 29.6 and twelve points below the 90-day maximum of 38. The 90-day peak likely reflects the tariff and trade-uncertainty episode that pushed Trade Policy Uncertainty to elevated readings; that indicator has since improved materially, now at just 17.8% activation. Scores in the mid-to-upper 20s are historically consistent with late-expansion softness rather than contraction precursors. The 2015-2016 industrial slowdown and the mid-2019 soft patch both saw composite readings in this range for extended periods without a recession following. The current configuration — weak consumer sentiment and housing supply overhang alongside intact labor and credit — resembles the 2019 pattern more than the sharper deteriorations of 2007 or 2022.
What to Watch
Consumer Confidence at 53.3 is already the top weighted contributor; a further decline toward 50 would push its activation meaningfully higher. Energy Price Shock at 62.55 and worsening bears watching if Strait of Hormuz disruptions materialize — a move toward 70 would increase its activation from 75.1% toward its ceiling. Real Income at 0.44% growth and worsening is the quieter risk: if nominal wage gains fail to keep pace with energy-driven inflation, the activation at 78.0% will climb. On the labor side, Unemployment Pace at 0.13 and 26.0% activation is the Core 6 indicator with the most room to move; a Sahm-style acceleration would be the single most consequential shift for the composite score. The next Initial Claims print will confirm whether the 203,750 improving trend holds.