score slips to 26 as housing and energy weigh on an otherwise calm tape
By Alex · Doom Watcher analyst
The Doom Score fell one point to 26, remaining firmly in All Clear territory, as Consumer Confidence, Energy Price Shock, and housing-supply stress continue to carry the load. Core 6 indicators are largely quiet. Prediction markets nudged recession odds slightly higher; bond yields and Iran-linked oil anxiety are the week's dominant macro themes.
By the Numbers
The Doom Score prints at 26, down one from yesterday's 27, and below both the 7-day average of 28 and the 30-day average of 31. The 90-day maximum was 38, meaning the current reading sits comfortably in the lower half of the recent range. The Core 6 sub-score is 16.85 — notably low, reflecting the fact that Yield Curve, Financial Conditions, Initial Claims, and High-Yield Spread are all at or near zero activation. The Diffusion Index of 41.18 means fewer than half of tracked indicators are in deteriorating territory. Top weighted contributors are Consumer Confidence, Home Construction, Energy Price Shock, Months Supply of Houses, and Real Income — a mix of consumer-side stress and housing-market drag rather than the credit or labor signals that typically precede a recession call.
What Changed Today
No indicator flipped alert levels today. Consumer Confidence remains the heaviest contributor at 112.5% activation, unchanged in trend. Energy Price Shock held at 75.1% activation with a worsening trend, consistent with the oil-price pressure visible in this week's market news. Real Income's activation of 78.0% with a worsening trend reflects continued erosion in purchasing power. On the improving side, Unemployment Pace (26.0% activation), Yield Curve 10Y-3M (20.9%), Trade Policy Uncertainty (17.8%), and Weekly Layoff Filings (0.0%) all trend better. Temp Worker Cuts improved marginally. The net one-point score reduction reflects modest easing at the margin rather than any decisive shift — the dashboard is grinding lower slowly, not breaking in either direction.
News Drivers
Two of the three news topics bear directly on the score's top drivers. Bond yields surging to a one-year high tightens the broader financial environment, though Financial Conditions itself remains at 0.0% activation — the market stress has not yet transmitted into the model's credit channels. Iran-linked oil anxiety is more legible in the data: Energy Price Shock sits at 75.1% activation with a worsening trend, and the STOXX 600's weekly losses on Middle East supply fears reinforce that dynamic. BRICS failing to issue a joint statement on Iran adds geopolitical noise without a clear macro transmission mechanism. Prediction markets moved modestly: Polymarket's 2026 recession contract rose to 23.5% from 22.5% a week ago; Kalshi held flat at 18.0%. Google Trends 'recession' interest climbed 19% week-over-week to 62, a notable uptick in public anxiety that has not yet found its way into the hard indicators.
Historical Context
A score of 26 is four points below the 30-day average of 31 and twelve points below the 90-day maximum of 38. The current reading is consistent with a low-stress, late-expansion environment rather than any recognizable pre-recession pattern. Historically, scores in the mid-to-upper 20s have appeared during soft-patch episodes that resolved without contraction — the 2016 post-Brexit stabilization and the mid-2019 window before the Fed's insurance cuts both produced readings in this vicinity. What distinguishes the current configuration is the unusual split: consumer-side and housing indicators carry meaningful activation while the Core 6 credit and labor signals remain almost entirely dormant. That divergence is worth monitoring; in prior cycles, consumer stress that preceded labor deterioration by several months occasionally proved to be a leading signal rather than noise.
What to Watch
Consumer Confidence at 112.5% activation is the single indicator most stretched above its recession-threshold. A further deterioration in the Conference Board or Michigan sentiment readings would keep it elevated and could lift the composite score back toward the 7-day average of 28. Energy Price Shock at 75.1% activation and worsening trend is the most likely near-term mover — any escalation in Iran-related supply disruption could push it toward the 90%-plus band. Real Income at 78.0% activation and worsening trend is one soft CPI or wage print away from becoming a more prominent driver. On the labor side, Unemployment Pace sits at just 26.0% activation with an improving trend; a deterioration there would be the most consequential possible shift, given its Tier 1 weight of 12. Weekly Layoff Filings at 203,750 and 0.0% activation bears watching if claims drift toward the 230k range.