doom score ticks to 30 as oil shock and Iran conflict dominate
By Alex · Doom Watcher analyst
The Doom Score rose two points to 30, crossing from All Clear into Caution, as Energy Price Shock and Consumer Confidence remain the heaviest contributors. The Iran conflict is driving the oil supply narrative. Prediction markets trimmed 2026 recession odds meaningfully over the past week.
By the Numbers
The Doom Score sits at 30, up two points from 28 yesterday, crossing the prior All Clear threshold into Caution. The Core 6 sub-score is 21.83 — relatively contained, reflecting that the most-weighted indicators like Yield Curve, Financial Conditions, and Initial Claims are largely dormant. Diffusion Index at 41.18 means fewer than half of tracked indicators are in deteriorating territory on a 90-day basis. Top drivers by weighted contribution are Home Construction, Oil, Consumer Confidence, Months Supply of Houses, and Real Income. Energy Price Shock carries the highest activation at 100%, followed by Consumer Confidence at 112.5% — the only indicator exceeding its stress threshold. The score sits just above the 7-day average of 29 and well below the 30-day average of 31.7.
What Changed Today
Energy Price Shock holds at 100% activation with a value of 89.61 and a worsening trend — the dominant persistent stress point. Consumer Confidence deteriorated further, printing 53.3 at 112.5% activation, the only indicator breaching its threshold. Real Income slipped to 0.44 with a worsening trend, and the JOLTS Quits Rate held at 2.0 with a worsening trend, signaling softening labor market confidence. Personal Savings Rate at 3.6 continues its worsening trajectory. On the improving side, Unemployment Pace, Yield Curve (10Y-3M), Trade Policy Uncertainty, and Initial Claims all show positive trend direction. No Tier 1 indicator outside of Oil is in elevated activation. The two-point score increase reflects the accumulation of mid-tier deterioration rather than any single threshold breach.
News Drivers
The IEA warning of a global oil supply deficit tied to the Iran conflict is the clearest external anchor for Energy Price Shock's 100% activation. Disruptions to Strait of Hormuz shipping — carrying roughly 21% of global oil transit — translate directly into the sustained elevation in the Oil indicator. Equity markets reflected the tension, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq declining as inflation concerns compounded geopolitical risk. The US-China EV technology dispute and Pentagon reporting $29 billion in Iran conflict spending add fiscal and supply-chain pressure at the margin. Prediction markets moved in the opposite direction of the score: Polymarket's 2026 recession contract fell to 21.5% from 22.5% a week ago; Kalshi dropped to 17% from 20%. That divergence — score up, market odds down — suggests traders are discounting the oil shock as a supply-side event rather than a demand-destruction signal.
Historical Context
At 30, the score sits one point above the 7-day average of 29 and 1.7 points below the 30-day average of 31.7, suggesting the current reading is broadly in line with recent trend rather than a breakout. The 90-day maximum of 38 was reached during a more acute stress window; today's 30 represents a meaningful distance from that peak. Scores in the high-20s to low-30s have historically corresponded to late-cycle caution phases — elevated but not recessionary. The 2019 mid-cycle slowdown and the 2022 energy shock episodes both featured periods where oil stress and consumer confidence weakness coexisted without triggering broader financial contagion. The current configuration — oil-driven, with labor and credit indicators largely quiet — resembles those supply-shock episodes more than a demand-led deterioration.
What to Watch
Consumer Confidence at 112.5% activation is the indicator most visibly in stress; further deterioration in the Conference Board or Michigan sentiment readings would deepen its contribution. Energy Price Shock at 100% activation leaves no room to worsen within its current band — the question is duration, not magnitude. Real Income at 78% activation and a worsening trend is the next candidate to breach its threshold; a negative monthly print would push it higher. On the labor side, Unemployment Pace at 26% activation and improving trend is a stabilizing force — any reversal there would matter disproportionately given its Tier 1 weight of 12. The Yield Curve (YC) at 3.8% activation remains dormant. A score move toward 35 would require at least two mid-tier indicators to worsen simultaneously, most plausibly Real Income and Personal Savings Rate.