score holds at 28 as Iran conflict keeps energy stress elevated
By Alex · Doom Watcher analyst
The Doom Score printed flat at 28 for a second consecutive day, remaining in All Clear territory, but the calm surface masks a worsening energy and consumer backdrop. Hormuz tensions sustain Oil at near-full activation while Consumer Confidence and Real Income continue to deteriorate. Prediction markets cut recession odds sharply.
By the Numbers
The Doom Score holds at 28, unchanged from the prior session and below both the 7-day average of 29.1 and the 30-day average of 31.9. The All Clear band runs from 0 to 29, placing the score at its upper boundary. Core 6 sub-score is 21.63, reflecting modest stress concentrated in Oil rather than the credit or labor channels. Diffusion Index at 41.18 means roughly four in ten tracked indicators are deteriorating on a 90-day basis — a non-trivial share for a score this low. Top drivers by weighted contribution are Energy Price Shock, Consumer Confidence, Home Construction, Months Supply of Houses, and Real Income. No Tier 1 credit or labor indicator is materially activated; the stress is concentrated in real-economy and household channels rather than financial plumbing.
What Changed Today
No indicator changed enough to move the composite score. Energy Price Shock remains the dominant contributor at 100% activation with a value of 89.61, its trend still worsening. Consumer Confidence continues to deteriorate at 112.5% activation, a value of 53.3 that sits well below historical comfort zones. Real Income's activation is 78% with a worsening trend, consistent with inflation eroding nominal wage gains. On the improving side, Unemployment Pace activation fell to 26%, Trade Policy Uncertainty dropped to 17.8% activation, and Weekly Layoff Filings hit 0% activation at 203,250 — a notably clean labor read. Financial Conditions, Corporate Borrowing Stress, and Bank Lending Standards all print at 0% activation, meaning the financial transmission channel remains closed. The score's stability reflects these offsetting forces holding in equilibrium.
News Drivers
All three news topics point in the same direction. The Iran conflict is driving Energy Price Shock's near-full activation: Hormuz drone warfare and blockade risk threaten roughly 20% of global oil transit, sustaining the 89.61 Oil reading. April inflation data is expected to show acceleration from these supply disruptions, which would further compress Real Income — already worsening at 0.44 — and constrain Fed flexibility. Failed peace negotiations remove any near-term resolution premium from energy markets. Against this backdrop, prediction markets moved decisively: Polymarket's 2026 recession contract fell to 22.5% from 24.5% a week ago; Kalshi dropped to 18% from 23%. The divergence between deteriorating real-economy indicators and falling recession odds likely reflects the market's read that the conflict remains contained to an energy-price channel rather than a broad financial shock. Google Trends data was unavailable for today's session.
Historical Context
At 28, the score sits one point below the All Clear ceiling and four points below the 30-day average of 31.9. The 90-day maximum was 38, suggesting the current episode has not approached the stress peaks of the recent window. Scores in the high-20s with a worsening energy and consumer confidence configuration have appeared before: the 2019 mid-cycle slowdown briefly produced similar readings, as did the early months of the 2022 energy shock before financial conditions tightened enough to push the composite higher. The key distinction in those episodes was whether the energy stress bled into credit markets. Currently, Corporate Borrowing Stress at 0% activation and Financial Conditions at 0% activation suggest that transmission has not occurred. The 30-day drift downward from 31.9 to 28 is a mild but consistent improvement in the aggregate.
What to Watch
The most consequential near-term release is April CPI, which the news digest flags as likely to show acceleration. A print that pushes Real Income further negative would increase its activation and could nudge Consumer Confidence lower still. Energy Price Shock is already at 100% activation, so incremental oil price moves affect the score through other channels rather than directly. Home Construction at 68.2% activation and Months Supply of Houses at 85.7% are the two stable indicators closest to a trend flip — any deterioration in mortgage demand driven by rate or confidence effects could push them higher. On the labor side, Unemployment Pace at 26% activation and Weekly Layoff Filings at 0% are the buffers keeping the score in All Clear; a claims print above roughly 230,000 would begin to change that picture. The score sits one point from the Caution band threshold of 29.