score holds at 28 as oil stress and consumer strain dominate a calm tape
By Alex · Doom Watcher analyst
The Doom Score held flat at 28 for a second consecutive session, remaining comfortably in All Clear territory. Prediction markets trimmed recession odds sharply. Energy and consumer confidence remain the dominant stress vectors, while labor and credit indicators continue to improve.
By the Numbers
The Doom Score prints at 28, unchanged from yesterday and below both the 7-day average of 29.7 and the 30-day average of 32.4. The 90-day maximum is 38, meaning the current reading sits ten points below the recent peak. The Core 6 sub-score is 21.42 — notably low, reflecting that Yield Curve, Financial Conditions, Initial Claims, and High-Yield Spread are all at or near zero activation. Diffusion at 41.18 means fewer than half of tracked indicators are in deteriorating territory on a 90-day basis. Top weighted contributors are Energy Price Shock, Consumer Confidence, Home Construction, Months Supply of Houses, and Real Income — a mix of supply-side cost pressure and demand-side softness rather than the credit or labor stress that typically anchors deeper recession signals.
What Changed Today
No indicator flipped alert level today, and the score held flat as a result. Energy Price Shock remains the single largest contributor, with activation at 100% and a worsening trend — its value of 89.61 keeps it fully lit. Consumer Confidence activation sits at 112.5%, the only indicator exceeding its stress threshold, with a value of 53.3 continuing to deteriorate. Real Income activation edged to 78.0% on a worsening trend, while Personal Savings Rate at 68.6% also trends worse. On the improving side, Unemployment Pace activation fell to 26.0%, Trade Policy Uncertainty dropped to 17.8%, and Weekly Layoff Filings hit 0.0% activation at 203,250 — a notably clean reading. The net effect is a dashboard where the stress is concentrated in cost-of-living channels, not in the labor or credit channels that historically lead recessions.
News Drivers
The dominant macro story is geopolitical energy risk. Vessel attacks in Qatari waters, LNG tankers navigating toward the Strait of Hormuz, and a suspected oil spill near Iran's Kharg Island export hub are the proximate drivers behind Energy Price Shock's full activation. Citi's warning that oil could rise further if peace talks stall is consistent with the indicator's worsening trend. Separately, new US sanctions on 11 entities across Iran, China, Belarus, and UAE add a secondary layer of supply-chain and trade fragmentation risk, though Trade Policy Uncertainty's activation has actually fallen to 17.8%, suggesting markets are not yet pricing a broader disruption. Offsetting these headwinds, the S&P 500 extended a six-week winning streak on earnings strength and AI-driven chipmaker gains. Prediction markets reflect the improving tone: Polymarket's 2026 recession contract fell to 21.5% from 25.0% a week ago; Kalshi dropped to 17.0% from 20.0%. Google Trends 'recession' interest fell 27% week-over-week to 51, a meaningful pullback in public anxiety.
Historical Context
At 28, the Doom Score sits 1.7 points below the 7-day average and 4.4 points below the 30-day average, confirming a modest but consistent easing trend over the past month. The 90-day maximum of 38 was reached during a period of sharper credit and labor stress; the current reading represents a 26% decline from that peak. Scores in the high-20s are historically consistent with mid-cycle slowdowns rather than recession precursors — the 2016 post-Brexit stabilisation and the mid-2019 Fed pivot window both produced readings in this range. The current configuration, with energy fully activated but credit and labor near zero stress, more closely resembles the 2018 oil-spike episode than a classic pre-recession deterioration pattern.
What to Watch
The most consequential near-term release is the next Consumer Confidence print — already the only indicator above 100% activation, any further deterioration would increase its weighted drag on the score. Energy Price Shock at full activation leaves no upside buffer; a de-escalation in Hormuz shipping risk or a sustained oil price decline would be the single largest potential score reducer. Home Construction at 68.2% activation and Months Supply of Houses at 85.7% are the next candidates to worsen if mortgage rates stay elevated. On the labor side, Unemployment Pace at 26.0% activation is improving, but a single weak payrolls report could reverse that trend quickly. The Yield Curve at 0.69 and 28.2% activation is moving in the right direction; a further steepening would reduce Core 6 pressure. Watch whether prediction markets sustain their move below 20% on Kalshi — that would mark the lowest recession pricing in several weeks.