score edges up one point as consumer stress and housing drag persist
By Alex · Doom Watcher analyst
The Doom Score ticked up one point to 30, crossing from All Clear into Caution, as Consumer Confidence and housing supply remain the dominant stress contributors. Core 6 prints at 21.48. Prediction markets trimmed recession odds modestly. Oil's slide on Iran deal prospects is a meaningful tailwind.
By the Numbers
The Doom Score sits at 30, up one point from yesterday's 29 and crossing the prior alert level of All Clear into Caution. The Core 6 sub-score is 21.48, a relatively subdued reading that reflects limited stress in the most-weighted indicators. Diffusion Index at 41.18 means fewer than half of tracked indicators are deteriorating on a 90-day basis — a mildly reassuring signal. Top drivers by weighted contribution are Consumer Confidence, Energy Price Shock, Months Supply of Houses, Home Construction, and Unemployment Pace. Consumer Confidence's activation at 112.5% is the single most elevated reading in the dashboard, pulling well above its stress threshold. Months Supply of Houses is fully activated at 100%. Both are tier-2 indicators, which limits their score impact relative to tier-1 names, but their persistence keeps the floor elevated.
What Changed Today
Consumer Confidence held at 53.3 with a worsening trend, maintaining its 112.5% activation — the only indicator breaching 100%. Months Supply of Houses at 9.7 months remains fully activated, though its trend has shifted to improving. Energy Price Shock eased to 88.9% activation as oil prices fell on Iran deal news, down from what had been a heavier drag. Real Income activation sits at 78.0% with a worsening trend, and JOLTS Quits Rate at 66.7% also continues to deteriorate — both pointing to softening labor market attachment. Personal Savings Rate at 3.6% carries a worsening trend. On the positive side, Weekly Layoff Filings at 207,500 holds 0.0% activation, Financial Conditions at -0.518 remains fully clear, and the Yield Curve (YC) at 0.5 is inactive. No indicator flipped critical today.
News Drivers
The one-point score increase was not driven by a single domestic catalyst. The three headline stories pull in different directions. A reported US-Iran framework agreement has pushed oil prices sharply lower, directly improving the Energy Price Shock indicator's trajectory — this is the clearest mechanical link between today's news and the dashboard. Record highs in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, led by AI chip names, are consistent with Financial Conditions and High-Yield Spread remaining fully inactive; equity strength compresses credit risk premia. South Korean inflation near a two-year high is a global signal with indirect relevance — persistent Asian price pressure complicates the global disinflation narrative and could affect supply chain costs. Prediction markets moved modestly: Polymarket's 2026 recession contract sits at 24.5%, down from 25% a week ago; Kalshi at 23%, down from 25%. Google Trends data was unavailable today.
Historical Context
Today's 30 sits below the 7-day average of 30.9 and meaningfully below the 30-day average of 32.5, suggesting the near-term trend is gently downward even as the score ticked up one point today. The 90-day maximum was 38, reached during a more stressed window earlier in the quarter — the current reading is eight points below that peak. A score of 30 at the Caution threshold is historically consistent with late-cycle deceleration rather than imminent contraction. The 2015-2016 industrial slowdown and the mid-2019 pre-emptive Fed easing period both produced sustained readings in the 28-34 range without triggering recession. The current configuration — soft consumer sentiment, elevated housing supply, but intact credit markets and a normalizing yield curve — resembles those episodes more than the sharper deterioration patterns that preceded 2001 or 2008.
What to Watch
Weekly Layoff Filings at 207,500 and 0.0% activation is the clearest buffer in the labor channel — a sustained move above 240,000 would begin activating that indicator and pressure the Core 6 sub-score. Unemployment Pace at 0.2 and 40.0% activation is the labor indicator closest to becoming a meaningful contributor; a Sahm-style acceleration would change the picture quickly. Consumer Confidence at 112.5% activation is already the top driver — any further deterioration in the Conference Board or Michigan readings would widen that lead. Months Supply of Houses at 9.7 months is fully activated but trending improving; a drop toward 8.0 months would reduce its contribution. On the energy side, confirmation of the US-Iran deal framework could push Oil activation below 80%, providing a modest score tailwind. The next major scheduled releases to monitor are initial claims Thursday and any Fed commentary ahead of the June meeting.