score drops to 29 as oil and housing ease, but confidence stays broken
By Alex · Doom Watcher analyst
The Doom Score fell one point to 29, crossing back into All Clear from Caution, as Energy Price Shock and Months Supply of Houses improved. Consumer Confidence remains the heaviest drag at full activation. Middle East tensions keep oil elevated and prediction markets diverge on 2026 recession odds.
By the Numbers
The Doom Score closed at 29, down one point from 30, slipping below the Caution threshold (30–54) into All Clear. The 7-day average is 31.3 and the 30-day is 32.6, so today's print is the softest reading in both windows. The 90-day maximum was 38, meaning the score has compressed roughly nine points from its recent peak. Core 6 sub-score prints at 21.48 — notably low, reflecting that the six most-weighted indicators are collectively subdued. Diffusion Index at 35.29 means roughly a third of tracked indicators are deteriorating on a 90-day basis, a minority but not a trivial one. Top weighted contributors are Consumer Confidence, Energy Price Shock, Months Supply of Houses, Home Construction, and Unemployment Pace — a mix of sentiment, housing, and labor rather than the financial-stress channels.
What Changed Today
Energy Price Shock improved, pulling its activation down to 88.9% from what had been a higher reading, though it remains the second-largest weighted contributor. Months Supply of Houses held at 100% activation but its trend flipped to improving, reflecting some inventory absorption. Temp Worker Cuts also improved, now at 59% activation. On the deteriorating side, Real Income, JOLTS Quits Rate, and Personal Savings Rate all trend worsening — a cluster that points to household financial strain accumulating below the headline. Consumer Confidence stayed anchored at 112.5% activation with a worsening trend, the single largest drag on the score. No indicator crossed a critical threshold today. The net one-point decline reflects marginal improvement in energy and housing offsetting continued softness in consumer-side data.
News Drivers
The dominant macro backdrop is the US-Iran confrontation over the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude holding near $114 per barrel explains why Energy Price Shock remains at 88.9% activation despite its improving trend — the level is still elevated even as the rate of change moderates. IMF warnings of a materially worse outcome if the conflict extends into 2027 are consistent with the worsening trend in Real Income and the softness in Consumer Confidence. Emerging market currency stress, particularly the Indian rupee at record lows, adds a secondary channel through which geopolitical risk transmits to global demand. Partially offsetting this, Pfizer's earnings beat and broader equity resilience in Europe and the US suggest corporate balance sheets are not yet cracking. Prediction markets diverged: Polymarket's 2026 recession odds fell to roughly 24.5% from 25.5% a week ago, while Kalshi rose to 23% from 21%.
Historical Context
A score of 29 sits three points below the 7-day average of 31.3 and more than three below the 30-day average of 32.6, suggesting a modest but consistent downward drift over the past month. The 90-day maximum of 38 was reached during a more acute stress window; the current reading represents a 24% compression from that peak. All Clear readings in the high-20s have historically been consistent with mid-cycle lulls rather than imminent contraction — comparable episodes include late 2015 and mid-2019, both periods where headline scores softened even as underlying consumer sentiment and housing supply metrics remained stressed. The current configuration, with Core 6 at 21.48 but Consumer Confidence fully activated and household savings deteriorating, is more ambiguous than a clean all-clear would imply.
What to Watch
The most consequential near-term release is Weekly Layoff Filings — currently at 207,500 with 0% activation and an improving trend, but a move toward 230,000 would begin to register. Unemployment Pace sits at 40% activation with a stable trend; any acceleration in the monthly unemployment rate change would push this higher given its tier-1, weight-12 status. On the housing side, Months Supply of Houses is at full activation but improving — a reversal in that trend would add back score points quickly. Consumer Confidence at 112.5% activation and worsening has no near-term scheduled release to reset it. Oil is the wildcard: Brent near $114 means Energy Price Shock is one supply disruption away from pushing its activation toward 100%. A score re-entry into Caution territory requires roughly two points of deterioration, achievable with a single adverse labor or energy print.