Score holds at 30 as Hormuz tensions lift oil risk
By Alex · Doom Watcher analyst
The Doom Score held flat at 30 for a second consecutive session, with Consumer Confidence and Energy Price Shock remaining the dominant stress contributors. A 5% oil spike tied to military escalation in the Strait of Hormuz kept the Energy Price Shock activation elevated even as the trend improved. Prediction markets trimmed recession odds modestly.
By the Numbers
The Doom Score prints at 30, unchanged from Friday, sitting below the 7-day average of 31.3 and the 30-day average of 32.8. The alert level remains Caution. Core 6 sub-score is 21.48, a relatively subdued reading that reflects the absence of stress in Financial Conditions, Yield Curve, and High-Yield Spread — three of the six most-weighted indicators are at zero activation. Diffusion Index is 41.18, meaning fewer than half of tracked indicators are in deteriorating territory on a 90-day basis. Top drivers by weighted contribution are Consumer Confidence, Energy Price Shock, Months Supply of Houses, Home Construction, and Unemployment Pace. No indicator currently sits in a critical band.
What Changed Today
No indicator changed materially enough to shift the composite score. Consumer Confidence remains the heaviest single contributor at 112.5% activation — the only indicator fully tripped — with a worsening trend. Energy Price Shock sits at 88.9% activation with an improving trend, a tension that reflects the lagged data structure: the underlying oil price value of 72.22 predates today's 5% spike, which will feed into future readings. Months Supply of Houses holds at 100% activation but its trend shifted to improving. Real Income, JOLTS Quits Rate, Personal Savings Rate, and Debt Service Ratio all carry worsening trends, a cluster that points to quiet household-sector deterioration beneath the headline flatness.
News Drivers
The session's dominant story is the reported military escalation in the Strait of Hormuz — Iranian missile strikes on US warships and attacks on commercial tankers drove a 5% oil price surge. That move has not yet registered in the Energy Price Shock indicator's current value of 72.22, but the directional pressure is clear and the indicator's activation at 88.9% leaves limited buffer before it crosses into higher stress territory. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari explicitly cited the Iran conflict as a constraint on forward rate guidance, adding a policy-uncertainty dimension on top of the supply shock. Prediction markets reflect modest relief: Polymarket's 2026 recession contract sits at 25% (down from 25.5% a week ago); Kalshi at 20%, down from 23%. Google Trends 'recession' interest rose 32% week-over-week to 87, a notable jump that often precedes rather than follows score moves.
Historical Context
At 30, the score sits four points below the 30-day average of 32.8 and eight points below the 90-day maximum of 38. The current reading is near the floor of the Caution band. Scores in the high-20s to low-30s have historically corresponded to late-cycle softness without imminent contraction — the 2015-16 oil shock episode and the mid-2019 pre-recession window both saw extended periods in this range. What distinguishes the current configuration is the combination of a fully activated Consumer Confidence indicator alongside near-zero stress in credit and financial conditions. That divergence — sentiment deteriorating while markets remain calm — appeared briefly in early 2019 before spreads eventually caught up.
What to Watch
The most immediate threshold is Energy Price Shock. At 88.9% activation and with oil prices having spiked 5% on Hormuz developments, the next data update could push this Tier 1 indicator toward full activation, adding meaningful weighted contribution to the score. Consumer Confidence at 53.3 is already fully tripped; any further deterioration in the Conference Board or Michigan series would deepen the worsening trend signal. On the labor side, Unemployment Pace sits at 40% activation with a stable trend — a Sahm-style acceleration would be the most consequential single shift available. Weekly Layoff Filings at 207,500 and zero activation bears watching; a sustained move above 230k would begin to register. The Google Trends spike to 87 warrants monitoring as a leading sentiment signal.