score holds at 30 as sentiment and housing drag against easing credit
By Alex · Doom Watcher analyst
The Doom Score is unchanged at 30 for a second consecutive session, with Consumer Confidence and housing supply still the heaviest contributors. Prediction markets trimmed recession odds modestly. Geopolitical risk around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz is the dominant macro overhang, though it has not yet moved the composite.
By the Numbers
The Doom Score holds at 30, flat from yesterday and below both the 7-day average of 31.3 and the 30-day average of 33. The 90-day maximum is 38, meaning the current reading sits comfortably inside the lower half of the Caution band. Core 6 sub-score is 21.48 — notably subdued, reflecting that the six most-weighted indicators are collectively contributing less stress than the broader basket. Diffusion Index at 35.29 means roughly a third of tracked indicators are elevated on a 90-day basis. Top drivers by weighted contribution are Consumer Confidence, Energy Price Shock, Months Supply of Houses, Home Construction, and Unemployment Pace. No Tier 1 indicator is in a critical state; the stress is concentrated in Tier 2 sentiment and housing channels.
What Changed Today
No indicator changed materially enough to shift the composite score. Consumer Confidence remains the single largest contributor at 112.5% activation — the only indicator fully tripped — while Energy Price Shock sits at 88.9% activation with an improving trend, suggesting oil's drag is fading at the margin. Months Supply of Houses holds at 100% activation but is also trending improving. Home Construction prints at 66.2% activation, stable. Unemployment Pace is 40% activated, also stable. On the positive side, Weekly Layoff Filings, Financial Conditions, High-Yield Spread, and Bank Lending Standards all register 0% activation, anchoring the Core 6 sub-score low. Trade Policy Uncertainty improved further, now at 31.4% activation. No indicator flipped direction today.
News Drivers
The three news topics are uniformly negative but have not yet transmitted into the composite. The Iran escalation story — potential US military strikes and a naval blockade threatening Strait of Hormuz flows — is the most direct channel to watch: Energy Price Shock is already at 88.9% activation with an improving trend; a sustained oil supply disruption would reverse that quickly. The US military withdrawal from Europe and NATO uncertainty is a slower-moving risk, more relevant to European credit and defense spending than to US domestic indicators tracked here. Emerging market currency weakness, led by India's rupee down over 5% year-to-date and the Nifty 50 off 8%, reflects capital outflow pressure that could tighten global financial conditions. Prediction markets eased: Polymarket's 2026 recession contract fell to 23.5% from 25.5% a week ago; Kalshi moved to 20% from 23%. Google Trends 'recession' interest rose 31% week-over-week to 63, a divergence worth monitoring.
Historical Context
A score of 30 sits four points below the 30-day average of 33 and eight below the 90-day maximum of 38. The current reading is at the lower boundary of the Caution band. Scores in the high-20s to low-30s have historically corresponded to soft-patch environments where individual indicators are stressed but systemic transmission has not begun — comparable to mid-2015 and late-2019, when consumer sentiment and housing supply were elevated but labor and credit held. The notable feature of the current configuration is the gap between a depressed Consumer Confidence reading (53.3, activation above 100%) and near-zero activation in Financial Conditions and High-Yield Spread. That divergence — sentiment weak, credit calm — has historically resolved in one of two ways: sentiment recovers as fears prove unfounded, or credit eventually catches up.
What to Watch
Energy Price Shock at 88.9% activation is the indicator closest to a meaningful threshold shift; any sustained move higher in crude tied to Strait of Hormuz disruption would push it toward full activation and add directly to the Core 6 sub-score. Consumer Confidence at 53.3 is already fully activated — the question is whether it worsens further or stabilizes. Unemployment Pace at 40% activation and Home Construction at 66.2% are the next labor and housing tripwires. On the calendar, the next Initial Claims print (currently at 0% activation with 207,500 filings) would need to climb toward the 230–240k range before registering. The Google Trends divergence — recession search interest up 31% while prediction markets ease — is worth tracking as a leading sentiment signal. A Polymarket print back above 25% would suggest the market is re-pricing the Iran risk premium.