doom score edges to 33 as oil and housing drag persists
By Alex · Doom Watcher analyst
The Doom Score ticked up one point to 33, remaining in the Caution band, as Consumer Confidence and Energy Price Shock held the top two weighted contributions. Prediction markets trimmed 2026 recession odds materially week-over-week. The composite sits below its 30-day average, but diffusion is above 50.
By the Numbers
The Doom Score prints at 33, up one point from 32 yesterday, and below the 30-day average of 33.4 and the 90-day maximum of 38. The alert level remains Caution. Core 6 sub-score is 21.48 — a relatively contained reading given that two of the six heaviest-weighted indicators, Financial Conditions and Weekly Layoff Filings, are at 0% activation. Diffusion Index is 52.94, meaning just over half of tracked indicators are deteriorating on a 90-day basis — a mild but notable majority. Top drivers by weighted contribution are Consumer Confidence, Energy Price Shock, Months Supply of Houses, Home Construction, and Unemployment Pace. No indicator has crossed into a critical threshold.
What Changed Today
Consumer Confidence remains the single largest contributor, with an activation of 112.5% on a value of 53.3 — well below its threshold. Energy Price Shock activation sits at 88.9% with oil at 72.22, trending improving but still elevated. Months Supply of Houses is fully activated at 100% with a value of 9.7, though its trend is improving. Home Construction activation is 66.2% at -7.36, stable. Unemployment Pace holds at 40% activation with a 0.2 reading, also stable. Notably, Weekly Layoff Filings at 210,750 and Financial Conditions at -0.518 both print at 0% activation, providing a meaningful floor under the score. No indicator flipped direction today.
News Drivers
The one-point rise is consistent with the news backdrop. Escalating Iran conflict is driving oil prices higher, directly pressuring the Energy Price Shock indicator, which at 88.9% activation is the closest Tier 1 indicator to a threshold breach. ConocoPhillips trimming its production outlook compounds the supply-side narrative — Qatar LNG disruptions feed into both energy costs and inflation expectations, which in turn weigh on Consumer Confidence. The Rivian DOE loan restructuring is a softer signal, pointing to stress in capital-intensive sectors dependent on government support, though it has no direct indicator mapping in the current snapshot. Prediction markets moved meaningfully: Polymarket's 2026 recession contract fell to 23.5% from 26% a week ago; Kalshi dropped to 18% from 23%. Google Trends data was unavailable today.
Historical Context
Today's 33 sits 2.3 points above the 7-day average of 30.7, suggesting a mild near-term uptick against a recent run of softer readings. The 30-day average of 33.4 is nearly identical to today's print, indicating the score has been range-bound. The 90-day maximum of 38 was never deep into Caution territory, which distinguishes this episode from more acute stress periods. Readings in the low-30s with diffusion just above 50 are characteristic of late-cycle hesitation rather than contraction onset — analogous in texture to mid-2015 or early 2019, when sentiment and housing supply indicators were elevated but labor and credit markets remained broadly intact.
What to Watch
Energy Price Shock at 88.9% activation is the nearest Tier 1 indicator to a threshold breach — a further leg up in oil prices tied to Iran escalation could push it to full activation and add meaningfully to the Core 6 sub-score. Consumer Confidence at 112.5% activation is already fully contributing; a further deterioration in the Conference Board or Michigan series would reinforce rather than shift the picture. Months Supply of Houses at 100% activation bears watching for any sign of inventory relief. On the labor side, Unemployment Pace at 40% and Unemployment Rate at 0% activation leave room for deterioration if Friday payroll data disappoints. A Polymarket recession probability climbing back above 26% would signal that markets are reassessing the recent easing in sentiment.