score holds at 32 as stagflation fears collide with resilient credit
By Alex · Doom Watcher analyst
The Doom Score printed flat at 32 for a second consecutive session, with Consumer Confidence and housing supply anchoring the top of the driver stack while the Core 6 remains subdued at 21.48. An Iran-driven oil shock is the dominant macro narrative, but financial conditions and credit spreads have not yet transmitted the stress.
By the Numbers
The Doom Score holds at 32, unchanged from yesterday and sitting above the 7-day average of 30.3 but below the 30-day average of 33.5 — a mild compression toward the lower end of the Caution band. The 90-day maximum is 38, meaning today's reading is 6 points below the recent ceiling. Core 6 sub-score is 21.48, a relatively contained reading given that three of the six — Financial Conditions, Weekly Layoff Filings, and the 10Y-2Y Yield Curve — are printing at 0% activation. Diffusion Index at 47.06 means just under half of tracked indicators are deteriorating on a 90-day basis. Top weighted contributors are Consumer Confidence, Oil, Months Supply of Houses, Home Construction, and Unemployment Pace — a mix of sentiment, housing, and energy rather than the credit or labor signals that typically dominate late-cycle deterioration.
What Changed Today
No indicator crossed a threshold materially today. Consumer Confidence remains the heaviest contributor at 112.5% activation with a value of 53.3, a level consistent with significant household pessimism. Energy Price Shock improved marginally, its activation easing to 57.2% as oil prices retreated from 4-year highs. Months Supply of Houses holds at 100% activation but its trend flipped to improving, suggesting inventory pressure may be peaking. JOLTS Quits Rate and Real Income both carry worsening trends, adding quiet deterioration to the labor and income channels. Personal Savings Rate at 4% continues its worsening trend. No indicator flipped activation bands in either direction. The score's flatness reflects offsetting drift — a handful of indicators softening at the margin while others stabilise.
News Drivers
The Iran conflict is the dominant macro backdrop. Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption has pushed oil to 4-year highs before a partial retreat, directly feeding the Energy Price Shock indicator's 57.2% activation. The simultaneous inflation and growth pressure — rice, manufacturing output, petroleum-dependent economies — is the mechanism behind Consumer Confidence's 112.5% activation and the worsening trends in Real Income and Personal Savings Rate. Prediction markets have barely moved: Polymarket and Kalshi both sit at 25% for a 2026 recession, with Polymarket down half a point from a week ago. Google Trends 'recession' interest fell 27% week-over-week to 73, suggesting the public anxiety spike has partially unwound despite the geopolitical escalation. AWS's 28% cloud growth is a counterweight — capital expenditure in digital infrastructure is not behaving like a pre-recession drawdown.
Historical Context
At 32, the score sits 1.3 points above its 7-day average and 1.5 points below the 30-day average of 33.5, indicating a modest near-term improvement within a slightly elevated medium-term trend. The 90-day maximum of 38 was never a stress-level reading — the Caution band runs from 30 to 54 — but it marks the recent ceiling. Scores in the low-30s with a diffusion index near 47 are characteristic of mid-cycle wobbles rather than pre-recession deterioration. The 2015–2016 oil shock episode produced a similar configuration: energy and sentiment indicators elevated, credit and labor largely intact. That episode resolved without recession. The current Iran-driven supply shock introduces a harder-to-model tail, but the financial transmission channels — spreads, conditions, claims — are not yet confirming escalation.
What to Watch
The Energy Price Shock indicator is the most sensitive near-term variable. A sustained Hormuz disruption that holds oil above its current threshold would push activation higher and begin pressuring the Core 6 sub-score. Financial Conditions at 0% activation is the key circuit-breaker: any tightening that moves it into positive activation territory would add meaningful score weight given its tier-1, weight-12 status. Weekly Layoff Filings at 210,750 and 0% activation has room to absorb modest deterioration, but a print above 230k would begin registering. The JOLTS Quits Rate at 1.9 with a worsening trend is worth monitoring — further softening signals labor market confidence eroding from the worker side. Prediction markets holding at 25% suggest the geopolitical shock has not yet repriced recession probability; a move toward 30% would be the cleaner signal that macro risk is being re-rated.